Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 19.575447 23.571392 27.991110 33.216792 39.200132 45.810275 53.637455
2025-05-18 13.435331 18.559076 24.839596 32.991219 43.168841 55.329374 70.818183
2025-05-25 9.718060 15.030888 22.102861 31.964718 45.092935 61.683382 83.910942
2025-06-01 7.496006 12.810153 20.405387 31.650432 47.417349 68.242822 97.253901
2025-06-08 5.659584 10.675001 18.354591 30.382708 48.068344 72.371328 107.407439
2025-06-15 4.782298 9.807088 17.954350 31.309346 51.698068 80.589777 123.346917
2025-06-22 3.742341 8.419989 16.491559 30.377164 52.420359 84.652994 133.631390
2025-06-29 3.254286 7.907050 16.352949 31.451466 56.162126 93.178309 150.565738
2025-07-06 2.458324 6.602365 14.627762 29.679094 55.250101 94.688402 157.313702
2025-07-13 2.168953 6.272928 14.602507 30.764485 58.946552 103.292102 174.867261
2025-07-20 1.896984 5.914427 14.459081 31.599704 62.249239 111.410189 191.992922
2025-07-27 1.699031 5.681122 14.521533 32.795063 66.208494 120.713443 211.269075
2025-08-03 1.446291 5.281289 14.258516 33.502560 69.644638 129.790212 231.315437
2025-08-10 1.160062 4.704911 13.531605 33.254945 71.426686 136.373857 247.934377
2025-08-17 0.885430 4.049478 12.489584 32.220818 71.654699 140.338841 260.492624
2025-08-24 0.703551 3.603632 11.844080 31.904454 73.146946 146.459694 276.746043
2025-08-31 0.520720 3.058622 10.824920 30.628517 72.661671 149.093005 287.301040
2025-09-07 0.449547 2.903885 10.799971 31.561163 76.550709 159.561272 311.342303
2025-09-14 0.337086 2.507531 10.013476 30.622936 76.594425 163.144125 323.823435
2025-09-21 0.294798 2.409484 10.073347 31.704202 80.837393 174.505715 350.042425
2025-09-28 0.203043 1.985654 9.028712 29.920317 78.930129 174.447045 356.413304
2025-10-05 0.177908 1.918300 9.114182 31.012773 83.233844 186.145509 383.816466
2025-10-12 0.152396 1.828798 9.104993 31.853397 87.036500 197.044004 410.143167